Blake Masters takes lead in final Arizona poll

A newly published poll released the day before Election Day from The Trafalgar Group shows Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters leading the race in Arizona against Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly. 

The survey, conducted between November 5 and 7, shows Trump-backed candidate Masters leading by 1.5 points. The senate race began with Democrat incumbent Kelly in the lead, but Masters has slowly been closing the gap between the two. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.



Trafalgar's poll also includes 1.3 percent of voters who said they would vote for Marc Victor, an independent who dropped out of the race last week and endorsed Masters. This endorsement has the potential to increase Masters' share of likely votes. Additionally, 3.8 percent of voters said that they are still undecided.

The midterms have seen a wave of disenfranchised Democrats lean towards the GOP, due to concerns about the state of the economy and rising crime rates. 

A poll last week showed that 48 percent of voters believed the Republican party would be best positioned to curb inflation, compared to 27 percent for Democrats. Also with regards to crime, 43 percent of voters believe Republicans are best able to tackle the issue, compared to 27 percent for Democrats.

Arizona has long been a battleground state. It was hotly contested after Biden won the state during the 2020 elections. It is also currently a site of a closely watched gubernatorial race between trumped-endorsed GOP candidate Kari Lake and Democrat rival Katie Hobbs.

The poll also found that Lake has a 4-point lead over Hobbs.

Republican Sen. John McCain held this seat for more than 30 years before his death while in office in 2018. The seat was then won by Kelly for the Democrats in 2020. This latest poll suggests that the seat could swing back to the Republicans.