Coronavirus has peaked in Ontario, long term care homes still at serious risk

New modelling data has been updated to predict the trajectory of how fast and how wide coronavirus will spread, and the results are more optimistic than originally predicted, according to Global News.

“Projections now show Ontario’s COVID-19 outbreak behaving more like best case,” according to a recent a report of the new modelling data presented by Adalsteinn Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto.

The report was also presented alongside Barbara Yaffe, Ontario's associate chief medical officer of health and Matthew Anderson, President and CEO of Ontario Health.

Brown acknowledged that while community spread may have peaked, the spreading within long term care homes continues to spread. The risk of a COVID-19 spike spreading still remains amongst any large gathering, stressed the report.

This report marks the second time public health officials revealed their projection data to the public, the first was on April 3, and the original projections were much more grim. The province predicted 80,000 cases and just under 1,600 deaths by the end of April. Now that we're nearing the end of April, we can see that the numbers are much more optimistic, with less than 20,000 cases.

As of April 20, there were 11,184 cases of the virus reported in Ontario and 584 deaths.

“We should all be proud that as a province we stepped up, we faced this enemy head on, we did not shy away from difficult decisions, we did the right thing, we listened to the experts and thanks to our collective efforts, thanks to all of you, we have so far avoided the worst case scenario that we were all dreading,” said Premier Doug Ford.

Health officials are accrediting the positive change in numbers to people's compliance with the social distancing measures and public health interventions, which have brought the peak to occur a month earlier than predicted.

“In almost every region [of the province] you can see that bending quite pronounced which gives us some hope that we are starting to control the community-based spread of this disease,” said Brown.

At the time the predictions were first made, Ontario was considered to have a 'medium case' of coronavirus, with South Korea having a 'best case' and Italy having a 'worst case.' This was determined based on how quickly the virus spread in those countries.

“Based on recent data, if current measures restricting spread of the disease remain in place, Ontario appears to be tracking toward the South Korea (“best case”) scenario,” wrote the report.

“We’re planning for the future, I’ve asked our job and recovery committee to develop a framework for a gradual measured and safe reopening of our province based on the data we’re seeing today and based on our unique situation,” said Ford.

Commenting on how the virus continues to harm long-term care homes, Yaffe said the province is implementing the COVID-19 Action Plan for Protecting Long-Term Care Homes by doing the following:

• Aggressive Testing, Screening, and Surveillance: enhancing testing for symptomatic residents and staff and those who have been in contact with persons confirmed to have COVID-19; expanding screening to include more asymptomatic contacts of confirmed cases; and leveraging surveillance tools to enable care providers to move proactively against the disease.
• Managing Outbreaks and Spread of the Disease: supporting long-term care homes with public health and infection control expertise to contain and prevent outbreaks; providing additional training and support for current staff working in outbreak conditions.
• Growing our Heroic Long-Term Care Workforce: redeploying staff from hospitals and home and community care to support the long-term care home workforce and respond to outbreaks, alongside intensive on-going recruitment initiatives.

“We are probably as Dr. Brown said, at the peak, but the peak is not just one point in time, the peak can last a bit. And we don’t want it going up again,” said Yaffe. “So we have extended the declaration of emergency to at least May 12 to support public health measures in place.”

“Everyone needs to continue to stay home as much as possible, maintain physical distancing to ensure that the province continues to stop the spread of COVID-19 and flatten the curve. These actions are making a big difference and you need to stay the course and stay strong to save lives,” said Yaffe.

Ford agreed with Yaffe’s recommendations for people to stay the course despite the positive news. “I have the faith in the people of Ontario, they’re the reason we’re in the spot that we’re in and we see a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel,” he said. “[But] we have to continue with the message, please continue to self-isolate when possible and social distancing.

“Don’t sit back on your laurels and take this for granted, we’re far from over.”

Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott echoed their words: “No amount of easing up or shortcuts are going to get us there [the end] faster.”