Jason Kenney's UCP fall drastically in polls, NDP numbers rise

The latest polling numbers from Alberta are in, and it could spell trouble for Premier Jason Kenney and the United Conservative Party.

Two recently conducted polls show a major drop in support for the UCP. After rolling into office with 55 percent of the vote and 72 percent of the seats in 2019 in the wake of the provincial NDP's unpopularity, polling data now suggests that the NDP could easily make a comeback in the traditionally conservative province.

One poll, conducted by the Angus Reid Institute, found the NDP leading the UCP by three points, with each party receiving 41 and 38 percent of the vote respectively.

The second poll, conducted by Léger, found a much more dire situation for the UCP. In that poll, which was conducted more recently and includes nearly twice as many voters, found the NDP polling at 51 percent compared to the UCP's lackluster 30, a 21 point difference.

The collapse in polling numbers comes as Kenney faces frustration from Albertans over his handling of the COVID pandemic. The province has taken a middle-of-the-road approach to coronavirus lockdowns which seem to please nobody. Initially seeking to avoid the harsh restrictions seen in provinces such as Ontario which have angered the ruling Progressive Conservative Party's voter base, Kenney's government sought to encourage Albertans to take personal responsibility in combating coronavirus.

However, as coronavirus infection rates continued to increase across Alberta in late 2020, the government began imposing harsher lockdown restrictions, without enforcing mass-closure of restaurants and other small businesses as seen in other provinces.

While many members of the UCP's base seem to view Kenney's response to coronavirus as too harsh, others have expressed outrage that the government has not done enough to lockdown the province.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Kenney has maintained one of the lowest approval ratings in the country, although his approval ratings were not considerably high going in to the pandemic. The Albertan economy has continued to struggle since the NDP lost power in 2019, an issue which has only been compounded by the pandemic.

There is some hope for Kenney's UCP. At the level of seats, the polling data suggests a neck-and-neck race between the two dominant parties in the province. If an election were held today, according to 338Canada's Philippe J. Fournier, the NDP would likely return to the Alberta legislature with 45 seats to the UCP's 42. 44 seats are needed to secure a majority government in Alberta.

Additionally, according to the Léger poll, some 27 percent of voters in Alberta have still not decided who they plan on voting for in the next election, leaving a lot of opportunity for the UCP to capture undecided voters.

The supermajority status of the UCP also means that another election will not be forced until 2023, by which point the party will have had ample time to recover in the polls. It is possible that the UCP could call an election before then, although it is unlikely given their polling numbers relative to their current standings in the Albertan legislature.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether the UCP will be able to cling to power in the next election, or whether the NDP will manage to make a comeback in the province.