Meet Arnon Mishkin– the Fox analyst who called Arizona early

Late in the evening on Tuesday, Nov. 3, Fox News became the first major news media outlet to call the state of Arizona in favour of former Vice President Joe Biden. The call shocked and angered President Donald Trump's reelection campaign, with outraged campaign officials dialing up the network to express their disagreement with the decision.

The concern from the Trump campaign was understandable. The Grand Canyon State, which has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once since 1948, was pivotal to Trump's reelection efforts. As well, it wasn't until the next day that the Associated Press became the next network to call the state in Biden's favour. CNN, The New York Times, and other outlets which are traditionally less favourable to the President than Fox are still yet to call the state as Biden's lead continues to narrow.

Yet despite a barrage of calls and complaints, with reports that even Rupert Murdoch himself, the media mogul who owns the network, was contacted by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, Fox News chose to stand by its decision, and moreover, the decision maker. That man is Arnon Mishkin.

So who is Arnon Mishkin?

Mishkin is a media consultant, Fox News contributor, pollster, and director of the network's decision desk, the team of data analysts and political scientists who make race projections during elections. Early on in his career he worked with David Garth, a well-regarded political consultant from the state of New York who worked on campaigns for both Democrats and Republicans. He has been the mastermind behind Fox News's decision desk since 2008 and is highly regarded in his industry for his data-crunching.

A graduate of the prestigious Yale University, the 65-year-old Brooklyn native married a former NBC editor, with whom he has two daughters. A practicing Jew, his father had left Poland for what was then Mandatory Palestine in 1937, while the family he left behind was exterminated in the Holocaust. His mother survived the Kovno Ghetto in Kanaus, Lithuania, where prisoners were subject to forced labour. He is also an avid cello player, proudly informing anyone who asks of his election night tradition of playing a Bach concerto.

Mishkin has a reputation for calling races early and correctly, often to the ire of the Republicans who watch his network when his projections are not in their favour. With a compelling track record on the matter, he has had no qualms defending his projections publicly.

In 2012, Fox News became the first major network to call Ohio in favour of President Barack Obama. The projection was met with outrage from the Mitt Romney campaign, for which Ohio was considered a key state to attain victory.

That evening, Republican strategist Karl Rove lambasted the network live on air for their decision, which Rove insisted was premature. With only 73% of the vote counted, Obama was leading Romney in the state by less than 31,000 votes. Rove served as a strategist for former President George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, playing a key role in capturing Ohio's electoral votes in both election.

Then-Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly sought to investigate Rove's discontent and payed a visit to Mishkin at the decision desk. Mishkin informed Kelly that he was "comfortable" with the projection, arguing that there was "just too much Obama vote outstanding." Mishkin proved to be correct, with Obama's lead in the state rising to over 160,000 votes by the time the results were finalized.

In a 2014 interview with i24News, an Israeli news station, Mishkin predicted Hillary Clinton's eventual victory in the Democratic primaries before she announced her intention to run. He also predicted that she would be challenged by someone to the left of her who would ultimately fail, but not without damaging her standing among the electorate.

Bernie Sanders ended up challenging Clinton for the nomination, with many of his supporters accusing the Democratic National Community of rigging the primaries after his loss.

Mishkin again angered Republicans during the 2018 midterm elections when Fox News became the first network to call a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives, a result which was highly anticipated by most election observers and pollsters.

However, none of these calls drew the ire of Republicans quite like his early call for Arizona on November 3rd, 2020.

The Trump campaign was quick to attack Mishkin and his network for the call, accusing him of being biased against the President. Mishkin is a registered Democrat who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and has made multiple campaign donations to Democratic politicians and affiliated organization, including Obama's 2008 presidential campaign and ActBlue, which the Trump campaign was happy to point out.

Not every donation Mishkin has made has been to Democrats, however. He donated $500 to Bruce Polliquin in 2014, a Republican who served two terms as the Congressman for Maine's 2nd Congressional District. In 1998 he donated $200 to the campaign of Republican John A McMullen in his failed bid for a Senate seat in Vermont.

In an interview with the Chicago Tribune's Stephen Battaglio, Mishkin was addressing attacks from the other side of the aisle, with the interviewer questioning how Fox News, which is widely regarded as a conservative-leaning network, could be trusted to make calls which are fair and accurate.

"Fox News on election nights has a reputation for being extremely accurate, and for being extremely fair in terms of reporting out the vote and the outcome of the election," Mishkin told Battaglio. "Every voter in America wants to know who’s won this race and why. And it frankly doesn’t matter the partisanship of that viewer — that’s what they’re looking for."

Despite the network's reputation for a right-wing bias, most observers seem to accept Mishkin's methodology. Pollster Nate Silver gives Fox News polls an A rating, while the Democratic Party continues to use the polls when deciding the setup of their debate stages in the primaries.

Foreshadowing election night, Battaglio asked Mishkin what would happen if the Trump campaign disputed any of his projections. Mishkin said that such a scenario had not been discussed, telling Battaglio that he is "focused on reporting out what those numbers show."

As the Republican campaign doubles down on their attacks against Mishkin, Mishkin has continued to stand by his projection in Arizona. While the Trump campaign sends out emails calling Mishkin a "Democrat operative," Mishkin made numerous appearances on Fox News to defend his prediction, saying that the decision was made after half an hour of deliberation.

He cited the fact that most of the votes were coming in from Maricopa County, many of which were submitted by mail which analysts have concluded heavily tilt in Biden's favour. Maricopa County, home of the state capital of Phoenix and nearly two thirds of Arizona's population, is traditionally a Republican stronghold and has not voted for a Democrat for President once since 1948. This election, however, the county appears to have shifted in Biden's favour, motivating Mishkin to call the entire state for Biden.

Mishkin said that the Trump campaign would need to win over 60% of the remaining uncounted ballots for the state to flip, but that he is likely only going to receive less than 45% of them. The Trump campaign has predicted that they would be victorious in Arizona by some 30,000 votes, and as votes continue to come in and 93% of ballots have been counted, Biden's lead in the state appears to be dwindling. As a result, most networks have refused to decisively call the sun belt state.

Whether Trump or Mishkin will ultimately prove to be correct is still uncertain, but given Mishkin's long and successful track record, a Trump breakthrough in Arizona would certainly come as a surprise to many.